Hidden Angles – The Consumer

Following a number of retail earnings this past week, here were the some of the new uncovered Hidden Angles added to our dashboard. To see every Hidden Angle entry across all symbols, you can sign up for Jaguar Options Pro or take a 4-Week Trial (See HERE).

Build-A-Bear (BBW) – The expected Holiday launch with Wal-Mart is not occurring, which is the specific driver behind commercial revenue being reset from +20% growth to flat for FY26. This lost wholesale relationship is a discrete, identifiable channel setback that goes beyond generic “consumer weakness” narratives and raises questions about Build-A-Bear’s ability to scale its asset-light commercial/licensing model with mass retailers.

Dollar General (DG) – Management flagged “notably accelerated trade-in from $100K and up” income cohorts in 2Q, a distinct shift beyond the typical low-income core customer narrative. Combined with Value Valley SKU count quietly expanding from 500 to 600 rotating items and $1 off-shelf displays rolled out to 9,000+ stores with a further expanded $1 assortment planned for fall/holiday 2H26, DG is structurally widening its wallet-share capture from higher-income defectors heading into the holiday setup.

Dollar Tree (DLTR) – Management confirmed the $1 price point reintroduction (tied to the 40th Anniversary on 6/12) and the $22M tariff refund COGS reinvestment were not material drivers of the 2Q traffic inflection — meaning the +0.4% traffic (first positive print with strongest 2-yr stack since 2Q25) came from “underlying” assortment/experience initiatives, with these promotional levers still ahead as untapped 2H catalysts. Additionally, traffic accelerated month-over-month with July as the strongest month and momentum continuing into August, running mid-single-digit SSS quarter-to-date versus guidance of +3-4%.

Movado Group (MOV) – Management flagged a Kate Spade watch collection launching next fiscal year with initial retailer feedback described as strong globally — a new licensed brand adding a revenue line no model carries, arriving alongside new Movado and Coach collections in 2H. The precedent is Olivia Burton, up 23% this quarter off a narrow U.K./U.S. focus, and it is being layered onto a category management says is structurally improving as Gen Z returns “pretty seriously” to traditional watches across the U.S., Mexico, Brazil and India.

Marzetti Co. (MZTI) – Management flagged that Bachan’s growth is set to accelerate specifically in 2H27 as new SKUs (Japanese mayonnaise, wing sauces) gain shelf space through spring retailer resets, with TDPs already up 16%+ and consumption tracking +8.7% in 4Q26. This creates a back-half-loaded setup where the F1Q Cyclospora headwind (-15% adj OI) could mask an inflecting Bachan’s ramp that consensus appears to be smoothing across the year.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) – Target’s newly announced Beauty Studio concept (which repurposes the ~600 former ULTA shop-in-shops) launched without any of ULTA’s largest prestige brand partners — no EL, L’Oreal, or LVMH brands participating. This directly undercuts the bear thesis that TGT would emerge as a credible prestige competitor post-partnership dissolution, and suggests the major beauty houses are actively protecting ULTA’s prestige moat rather than diversifying distribution.

Williams Sonoma (WSM) – The AI disclosures are a step-change rather than an experiment: personalized e-commerce visits now generate roughly 9x average-visit revenue versus 2x last year, Williams-Sonoma Assistant engagement is up 700% year-to-date with associated revenue up 620%, and engaged customers convert at 3x the rate. Pottery Barn’s Auto agent, launched in August and therefore entirely outside the reported quarter, already resolves over 70% of engagements without human handoff.